OVERHANG

“could be as little as 1-2 years away”

“an intern-level research assistant by September 2026”

“a fully automated 'legitimate AI researcher' by 2028”

“Developing superintelligence is now in sight.”

“The rest of this decade seems likely to be the decisive period for determining the path this technology will take”

“In the next five to ten years, I think.”

“Maybe within the next decade or so, I don't see why not.”

“We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous”

“we are not far from the world—I think we'll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code.”

“we expect powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027.”

“We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it.”

“Anyone in 2035 should be able to marshall the intellectual capacity equivalent to everyone in 2025”

“2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights.”

“I think it could come as early as 2026, though there are also ways it could take much longer.”

“compress the progress that human biologists would have achieved over the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years”

“It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days”

“AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible.”

“My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year,”

“If you're really interested in human level AI, abandon the idea of generative AI.”

“and I'm guessing in five years time, we'll do well on every single one,”

“I think in five years' time it may well be able to reason better than us.”

“If science continues undisrupted, the chance of unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task was estimated at 10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047.”

“The aggregate forecast time to a 50% chance of HLMI was 37 years, i.e. 2059”

“Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years”

“The median estimate of respondents was for a one in two chance that high-level machine intelligence will be developed around 2040-2050, rising to a nine in ten chance by 2075.”

“Ray Kurzweil maintains that a computer (i.e., a machine intelligence) will pass the Turing test by 2029.”

“At the present rate, computers suitable for humanlike robots will appear in the 2020s.”

“Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence.”

“I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.”

“In no part of the field have the discoveries made so far produced the major impact that was then promised”

“In from three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being.”

“Within a generation... the problem of creating 'artificial intelligence' will substantially be solved.”

“machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do.”

“the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make”

“within ten years a digital computer will be the world's chess champion”

“within ten years a digital computer will discover and prove an important new mathematical theorem.”

“We think that a significant advance can be made in one or more of these problems”

“I believe that in about fifty years' time it will be possible, to programme computers, with a storage capacity of about 109, to make them play the imitation game so well that an average interrogator will not have more than 70 per cent chance of making the right identification after five minutes of questioning.”

“Nevertheless I believe that at the end of the century the use of words and general educated opinion will have altered so much that one will be able to speak of machines thinking without expecting to be contradicted.”